March was another historical month for the Quinte real estate market for single family homes. For the month, the average selling price for the entire region was $312,881. That’s a 27.5% increase from 2016. In comparison, the average selling price in Kingston was $340,768 for the same period.
Listings Still Down…
It is still a strong seller’s market due to the shrinking inventory levels and the increase in buyers both local and non-local. In fact, the number of active listings at the end of the month decreased more in March than in February or January¹. Active listings in Belleville were down 45%! With such a restriction on supply, the prices have nowhere to go but upwards.
Of all our municipalities, Quinte West shows the most dramatic numbers for March. For example, unit sales have practically doubled compared to March ‘16 (up 94.4%) and the months of inventory dropped down to 1.2 months². However, Quinte West did have an increase in new listings which could suggest that sellers are starting to balance the market, but that could take months.
Another stat that is used to determine the market balance is called Sales to New Listing Ratio. A ratio of 0.5 (or 50%) indicates a perfectly balanced market. If the ratio is higher than 0.6 it indicates a seller’s market. Conversely, if the ratio is under 0.4 it is considered a buyer’s market. In March, the ratio for the entire region was 0.68, or 68%, which is down from 92% in February. This likely means that as spring approaches, more homeowners are deciding to put their homes for sale and the market will eventually become more balanced. However, we do not expect that sellers will cause the market to completely return to a balanced position. Because of provincial and national trends, the market will likely still lean to be a seller’s market, as supply can’t possibly keep up with demand. As a result, the market will feel more balanced but prices should still continue to rise consistently with the influx of non-local buyers.
On another note, the data coming out of The County seems to indicate a more balanced market. The sales to new listing ratio was actually 42% (54% for 2017) and there remains 4.3 months of inventory. However, average selling price remains 35% higher. This tells us that prices will continue to increase for the rest of the region to closer match PEC, or demand will increase in PEC to match rest of region. Or both…
¹Comparing active listings at the end of the month in 2017 vs. 2016. Jan/17 -24%, Feb/17 -35%, Mar/17 -38%
²Months of Inventory measures the current amount of properties for sale. Four to five months of supply is average. If the number is smaller, this means that buyers are dominating the market and there are relatively few sellers, and vice-versa. To calculate: NActive Listings ÷ NSales
Statistical information presented here is based on data from the monthly residential (single family) activity report issued by the Quinte & District Assosiation of Realtors®. This is for information purposes only.